Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
